If You Wanted to Start a Business in the UK Today… Were We Right?

Looking Back at Our 2024 Predictions

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Looking Back: Were We Right?

Two years ago I suggested that one of the best businesses to start in the UK was sustainable packaging.

It wasn't simply because "green" businesses were fashionable.

It was because several powerful trends appeared to be moving in the same direction.

Environmental legislation was tightening.

Consumers were becoming increasingly conscious of plastic waste.

Businesses were searching for alternatives to single-use plastics.

Governments were encouraging sustainable innovation.

The question is...

Did those predictions stand the test of time?

Overall, I believe they largely did.

But not entirely in the way I originally expected.

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What We Got Right

Sustainability Has Become Business as Usual

The biggest prediction that proved correct was that sustainability wasn't a passing trend.

It has become an expectation.

Large retailers now actively look for suppliers who can demonstrate environmental responsibility.

Consumers increasingly expect products to arrive in recyclable or reduced packaging.

Environmental reporting has become more common across businesses of every size.

In short, sustainability moved from being a competitive advantage to becoming part of normal business practice.

That alone validates much of the original prediction.

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Legislation Continued to Push the Market

The original article highlighted government legislation as a major driving force.

That has continued.

Packaging regulations, Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) reforms and increasing pressure to reduce waste have all encouraged businesses to rethink how products are packaged and delivered.

Many companies that delayed making changes in 2024 now find themselves having little choice.

Legislation often moves more slowly than technology, but when it arrives, entire industries have to adapt.

That remains one of the strongest reasons why sustainable packaging continues to be an attractive sector.

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Demand Continued to Grow

Online shopping certainly hasn't disappeared.

Every product that arrives at someone's home still requires packaging.

At the same time, businesses are under increasing pressure to reduce packaging waste, improve recycling and demonstrate environmental responsibility.

Demand didn't disappear.

It evolved.

Customers now expect sustainability to be built into products rather than offered as a premium option.

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What We Got Wrong

No prediction survives two years unchanged.

Looking back, there were several things I underestimated.

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Cost Remained the Biggest Obstacle

Perhaps the biggest lesson was that businesses care about sustainability...

...but they also care about cost.

Many environmentally friendly packaging materials remain more expensive than traditional alternatives.

During a period of rising inflation and tighter business budgets, price often won over environmental ambition.

The opportunity still exists, but products must compete on value as well as environmental credentials.

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Innovation Moved More Slowly Than Expected

In 2024 there was considerable excitement around new materials such as mushroom packaging, seaweed packaging and plant-based plastics.

While progress has certainly been made, widespread adoption has taken longer than many expected.

Many businesses continued using improved versions of existing materials rather than completely replacing them with revolutionary alternatives.

Innovation continues—but commercial reality often moves more slowly than headlines suggest.

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AI Changed Every Industry

This wasn't something the original article discussed because, quite simply, few people realised how quickly AI would become embedded into everyday business.

The sustainable packaging industry hasn't escaped this trend.

Manufacturers now use AI to optimise production, reduce waste, improve logistics and forecast demand.

Design companies use AI to develop packaging concepts faster.

Sales and customer service have become increasingly automated.

The opportunity isn't simply sustainable packaging anymore.

It's building a sustainable packaging company that fully embraces modern technology.

Looking Ahead: My Prediction for 2028

Two years ago I predicted that sustainable packaging would become one of the strongest sectors for new businesses.

Looking back, I still believe that was a sound prediction.

• The environmental pressures continue to grow.
• The legislation continues to tighten.
• The demand remains.

But if I were starting a business today, I wouldn't build a sustainable packaging company.

I'd build something very different.

My Prediction

The best business to start in the UK today is an AI Business Efficiency Consultancy for Small Businesses.

Not another AI chatbot, another AI image generator or another company promising to replace people.

Instead, a business focused on helping traditional small businesses work smarter.

Every electrician, accountant, solicitor, plumber, estate agent, independent retailer and local manufacturer.faces the same challenge.

• They know AI is important.
• They've experimented with ChatGPT.
• They've seen hundreds of YouTube videos.

But they still don't know how to use AI to genuinely improve their own business.

That gap is enormous.

In many ways, it reminds me of the early days of websites.

Businesses knew they needed one.

Few knew how to build one.

Those who helped businesses cross that gap built highly successful companies.

I believe we're about to see the same thing happen with AI.

The technology is now mature enough to deliver real productivity gains, yet many smaller businesses have only scratched the surface of what's possible. Government policy continues to encourage innovation and business investment, while national statistics show that smaller firms still lag behind larger organisations in practical AI adoption.

The opportunity isn't selling AI.

It's helping businesses save time.

Reduce costs.

Improve customer service.

Automate repetitive administration.

And give business owners something they desperately need...

More time to actually run their business.

What If Technology Isn't Your Thing?

Not everyone wants to build software, become an AI consultant or spend their day behind a computer screen.

The good news is that some of the strongest business opportunities over the next decade are likely to be in practical, hands-on industries.

Ironically, many of these sectors have become even more attractive as AI has advanced.

While AI is changing office-based jobs at an incredible pace, it still can't repair a leaking roof, install a consumer unit, care for an elderly person or landscape a garden.

If I were advising someone who wanted to start a practical business today, these are the sectors I would seriously consider.

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1. Electrical Services ★★★★★

If I could only recommend one physical trade today, it would probably be this.

The UK is moving towards greater electrification.

Electric vehicles, Heat pumps, Solar panels, Battery storage, Smart homes, Home automation and Commercial energy managemen all require qualified electricians.

At the same time, many experienced electricians are approaching retirement while demand continues to grow. Construction and clean energy are among the sectors expected to require the largest workforce growth over the next decade.

This isn't simply about replacing plug sockets anymore.

It's becoming a technology trade.

Prediction: Excellent long-term prospects.

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2. Plumbing and Heating ★★★★★

Much like electrical work, plumbing is evolving.

Heat pumps, Water efficiency, Renewable heating systems, Smart heating controls and Commercial energy efficiency.

As the housing stock modernises, plumbers are becoming specialists in sustainable home systems rather than simply repairing leaking pipes.

Again, demand significantly outweighs supply in many areas.

Prediction: One of the safest businesses to build over the next decade.

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3. Care Services ★★★★★

This sector isn't glamorous.

It is physically and emotionally demanding.

But Britain's ageing population means demand continues to grow.

Care homes, Home care, Dementia support, Respite care and Specialist home services.

While recruitment has become more difficult following changes to overseas worker rules, the need for care certainly hasn't reduced. Skills England projects care workers and home carers to be among the fastest-growing occupations over the next decade.

For anyone genuinely passionate about helping people, this sector offers long-term security.

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4. Renewable Energy Installation ★★★★★

This sector barely existed twenty years ago.

Today it includes:

• Solar installation
• Battery storage
• EV charging
• Heat pumps
• Energy monitoring
• Smart home integration

Government policy and consumer demand continue pushing towards lower-carbon homes and businesses, creating opportunities for installers and maintenance specialists.

Many electricians and plumbers are expanding into these services rather than remaining in traditional work alone.

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5. Landscaping and Garden Services ★★★★☆

Britain loves its gardens.

That hasn't changed.

However, the industry is changing.

Customers increasingly look for:

• low-maintenance gardens
• biodiversity
• wildlife-friendly planting
• outdoor entertaining spaces
• home offices
• year-round maintenance

Adding design, irrigation, lighting and maintenance packages creates recurring income rather than relying solely on one-off projects.

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6. Specialist Catering ★★★★☆

Opening a traditional restaurant remains difficult.

Margins are tight, costs remain high, however, specialist catering continues to offer opportunities.

• Corporate events.
• Street food.
• Premium mobile catering.
• Private dining.
• Meal preparation.
• Niche dietary services.

People continue to spend money on experiences, even when they reduce other discretionary spending.

The business model matters more than ever.

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7. Health, Fitness and Wellbeing ★★★★☆

People are living longer.

Many also want to remain healthier.

Rather than opening another large gym, there are growing opportunities in specialist services such as:

• Personal training
• Over-50 fitness
• Rehabilitation exercise
• Mobility coaching
• Nutrition advice
• Community wellness programmes

These businesses often require relatively modest start-up costs while benefiting from repeat customers.

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Industries I Would Be More Cautious About

Not every sector is moving in the right direction.

If I were starting from scratch today, these are the areas where I would think carefully before investing.

Traditional High Street Retail

Online competition remains relentless.

Large chains continue to dominate purchasing power.

Consumers increasingly expect convenience, fast delivery and competitive pricing.

Unless you have a unique product or exceptional local niche, this has become a difficult market to enter.

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Generic Office Administration Services

Many repetitive administrative tasks are now being automated.

Scheduling.

Basic bookkeeping.

Data entry.

Simple customer support.

Document preparation.

These services haven't disappeared, but businesses increasingly expect them to be delivered faster and more efficiently with the help of AI.

The opportunity now lies in offering higher-value business support, not routine administration.

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Traditional Call Centres

AI-powered customer service, self-service portals and automated assistants continue to reduce demand for large call centre operations.

Human support remains essential for complex enquiries, but routine customer service is increasingly handled through automation.

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General Retail Without a Specialism

Trying to compete purely on price has become incredibly difficult.

Large online marketplaces dominate this space.

Successful retailers increasingly win through:

• expertise
• specialist products
• exceptional customer service
• community
• unique experiences

Simply opening another general retail shop is far riskier than it was a decade ago.

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My Final Prediction

Looking back at my original article, I still believe sustainable packaging was a sensible recommendation.

Looking forward, however, I believe the biggest opportunities will fall into two very different camps.

The first is helping businesses become more productive through AI and automation.

The second is providing skilled physical services that society will continue to need regardless of how advanced technology becomes.

If I were advising a young person leaving school today, I would seriously encourage them to consider becoming an electrician, plumber or renewable energy engineer. These careers combine strong earning potential, opportunities for self-employment and resilience against automation, while demand is expected to remain high as the UK invests in construction, clean energy and infrastructure.

The lesson from revisiting my 2024 prediction is perhaps simpler than I expected.

Don't chase fashions.

Don't chase headlines.

Look for the problems society will still need solving in ten years' time.

Because those are the businesses that tend to survive whatever the economy, government or technology throws at them.

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